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Stock Analysis & ValuationTriCo Bancshares (TCBK)

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$49.82
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
High
Valuation methodValue, $Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)35.91-28
Intrinsic value (DCF)36.02-28
Graham-Dodd Method25.27-49
Graham Formula49.48-1

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

TriCo Bancshares (NASDAQ: TCBK) is a leading regional bank holding company operating through its subsidiary, Tri Counties Bank, across California. Founded in 1975 and headquartered in Chico, the company provides a comprehensive suite of commercial banking services, including demand, savings, and time deposits, alongside a diversified loan portfolio featuring small business, real estate mortgage, consumer, commercial, and agricultural loans. Additionally, TriCo Bancshares offers treasury management, safe deposit boxes, and independent financial services. With a network of 61 traditional branches, 7 in-store branches, and 7 loan production offices spanning 31 California counties, the bank serves both individual and corporate clients. Positioned in the competitive regional banking sector, TriCo Bancshares emphasizes community-focused banking with a strong presence in Northern and Central California. Its stable financial performance, prudent risk management, and commitment to local markets make it a key player in the regional financial services landscape.

Investment Summary

TriCo Bancshares presents a stable investment opportunity within the regional banking sector, supported by its consistent profitability, low beta (0.605), and strong dividend yield (current dividend of $1.32 per share). The company’s focus on California’s diverse economy provides a solid deposit and lending base, though exposure to regional economic fluctuations remains a risk. With a market cap of ~$1.29B and diluted EPS of $3.47, TCBK trades at a reasonable valuation. However, competition from larger national banks and fintech disruptors could pressure margins. Investors should weigh its reliable cash flow ($109.7M operating cash flow) against modest revenue growth ($388.8M in revenue) and a debt-to-equity profile that aligns with regional bank peers.

Competitive Analysis

TriCo Bancshares competes in California’s crowded regional banking market by leveraging its community-centric model and localized decision-making. Its competitive advantage lies in deep customer relationships and a focus on small-to-midsize businesses, which larger national banks often underserve. The bank’s low-cost deposit base and efficient branch network (including in-store locations) help maintain net interest margins. However, its geographic concentration in California exposes it to state-specific economic risks (e.g., real estate volatility). While TriCo lacks the scale of national players, its agility in tailoring loans (e.g., agricultural and SBA lending) differentiates it. Digital banking capabilities are adequate but lag behind tech-forward competitors, posing a long-term challenge. The bank’s conservative underwriting and strong capital ratios (evidenced by $145M in cash) provide resilience but may limit aggressive growth.

Major Competitors

  • CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF): CVB Financial operates Citizens Business Bank, a key California competitor with a larger footprint (~60 branches). Strengths include robust commercial lending and higher efficiency ratios. Weaknesses: Less diversified loan portfolio than TriCo.
  • Pacific Premier Bancorp (PPBI): Pacific Premier focuses on Southern California and commercial real estate. Strengths: Strong deposit growth and digital tools. Weaknesses: Higher exposure to CRE loans vs. TriCo’s balanced mix.
  • Westamerica Bancorporation (WABC): Westamerica serves Northern California with ultra-conservative risk management. Strengths: Exceptional asset quality. Weaknesses: Slower growth and limited innovation compared to TriCo.
  • SVB Financial Group (defunct) (SIVB): SVB (prior to collapse) targeted tech startups, a niche TriCo avoids. Strengths: High-growth clientele. Weaknesses: Concentrated risk led to failure—highlighting TriCo’s stability.
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): JPMorgan dominates national banking with vast resources. Strengths: Digital superiority and global reach. Weaknesses: Less personalized service for small businesses vs. TriCo.
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