Stock Analysis & Valuation TotalEnergies SE (TOTB.DE)

• Previous Close: €61.20
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Low

Valuation method	Value, €	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	50.10	-18
Intrinsic value (DCF)	33.75	-45
Graham-Dodd Method	24.50	-60
Graham Formula		n/a

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

TotalEnergies SE (TOTB.DE) is a leading global integrated oil and gas company headquartered in Courbevoie, France. Operating across four key segments—Integrated Gas, Renewables & Power; Exploration & Production; Refining & Chemicals; and Marketing & Services—TotalEnergies is strategically positioned in the energy transition. The company is actively expanding its renewable energy portfolio, including wind, solar, hydroelectric, and biogas projects, while maintaining a strong foothold in traditional oil and gas operations. With approximately 16,000 service stations and 25,000 EV charge points worldwide, TotalEnergies is adapting to evolving energy demands. The company’s diversified business model includes LNG production, petrochemical refining, and energy trading, supported by strategic partnerships with firms like PureCycle Technologies and Plastic Energy. TotalEnergies rebranded from TOTAL SE in 2021 to reflect its commitment to sustainable energy solutions. As of 2021, it held 12,062 Mboe of proved reserves, underscoring its resource base. With a market cap exceeding €113 billion, TotalEnergies remains a key player in the global energy sector, balancing legacy hydrocarbon operations with investments in low-carbon technologies.

Investment Summary

TotalEnergies presents a compelling investment case due to its diversified energy portfolio and strategic shift toward renewables. The company’s strong operating cash flow (€30.85B in the latest period) supports its dividend (€3.16 per share) and capital expenditures (€14.91B), including green energy projects. However, exposure to volatile oil prices (beta of 0.704) and geopolitical risks in hydrocarbon operations remain key concerns. Its debt-to-equity position (€51.24B total debt) is manageable but warrants monitoring. Investors may value TotalEnergies for its integrated model, which mitigates sector cyclicality, and its progressive renewable energy investments, positioning it for long-term sustainability.

Competitive Analysis

TotalEnergies competes in the global integrated oil and gas sector by leveraging its scale, diversification, and early-mover advantage in renewables. Unlike pure-play oil majors, its integrated gas and renewables segment provides stability amid energy transitions. The company’s 25,000 EV charge points and partnerships in circular plastics (e.g., PureCycle Technologies) differentiate it from peers focused solely on hydrocarbons. However, its renewable capacity lags behind specialized players like Ørsted. In Exploration & Production, TotalEnergies benefits from low-cost reserves and LNG expertise, competing closely with Shell and BP. Its Refining & Chemicals segment faces margin pressures but is offset by trading operations. Marketing & Services, with 16,000 stations, rivals BP and Shell in downstream reach. TotalEnergies’ French base offers regulatory stability but limits growth versus emerging-market-focused competitors. Its balanced strategy between legacy and green energy is a strength, though execution risks in renewables remain.

Major Competitors

• Shell plc (SHEL): Shell is a direct competitor with a larger renewable portfolio (e.g., offshore wind) and stronger trading operations. However, its recent pivot back to hydrocarbons under investor pressure contrasts with TotalEnergies’ steadier green transition. Shell’s LNG leadership and global downstream network are key strengths.
• BP plc (BP): BP has aggressively targeted net-zero goals but faces execution risks in renewables. Its weaker balance sheet (higher debt than TotalEnergies) and reliance on oil projects like Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli limit flexibility. BP’s retail footprint rivals TotalEnergies’, but its EV infrastructure lags.
• ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM): ExxonMobil focuses on upstream oil/gas, with minimal renewables exposure. Its Permian Basin dominance and chemical segment are strengths, but it lacks TotalEnergies’ integrated gas and green energy diversification. Exxon’s higher dividend yield appeals to income investors.
• Chevron Corporation (CVX): Chevron’s low-cost upstream assets and strong balance sheet compete with TotalEnergies’ E&P segment. Its renewable investments (e.g., hydrogen) are nascent compared to TotalEnergies’. Chevron’s US focus contrasts with TotalEnergies’ global LNG presence.
• Equinor ASA (EQNR): Equinor leads in offshore wind but has smaller downstream operations. Its state-backed model ensures stability but limits agility. TotalEnergies’ broader geographic and segment diversification provides an edge, though Equinor’s carbon capture projects are innovative.