Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
---|---|---|
Artificial intelligence (AI) | 206.46 | 80 |
Intrinsic value (DCF) | 0.00 | -100 |
Graham-Dodd Method | 134.74 | 18 |
Graham Formula | 149.10 | 30 |
AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE: AER) is the world's largest independent aircraft leasing company, headquartered in Dublin, Ireland. With a fleet of 2,369 owned, managed, or on-order aircraft as of December 2021, AerCap specializes in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment globally. The company serves airlines across key markets, including China, Hong Kong, Macau, the U.S., and Europe, providing comprehensive asset management services such as remarketing, lease compliance monitoring, and technical modifications. Additionally, AerCap offers cash management, administrative support, and supply chain solutions for airframe and engine parts. Operating in the Industrials sector under Rental & Leasing Services, AerCap plays a critical role in the aviation ecosystem by enabling airlines to optimize fleet flexibility without heavy capital expenditures. Its diversified portfolio and strong industry relationships position it as a leader in aviation finance.
AerCap presents a compelling investment case due to its market-leading position in aircraft leasing, diversified global customer base, and strong cash flow generation. The company benefits from long-term lease agreements, providing stable revenue visibility, and its scale allows for cost efficiencies in fleet management. However, risks include high leverage (total debt of $45.4B), exposure to airline credit risk, and cyclicality in the aviation industry. The stock's beta of 1.42 suggests higher volatility relative to the market. Investors should weigh AerCap's strong EPS ($10.79 diluted) and operating cash flow ($5.44B) against macroeconomic uncertainties, such as rising interest rates and potential airline defaults.
AerCap's competitive advantage stems from its industry-leading scale, with the largest fleet among independent lessors, enabling superior purchasing power and risk diversification. Its global presence and long-standing relationships with airlines and manufacturers (like Airbus and Boeing) provide preferential access to new aircraft. The company's integrated services—leasing, financing, and asset management—create sticky customer relationships. However, competition is intensifying as airlines increasingly favor leasing over ownership. AerCap's high leverage, while typical for the capital-intensive leasing industry, could limit financial flexibility in downturns. Its focus on modern, fuel-efficient aircraft (a key selling point for cost-conscious airlines) differentiates it from lessors with older fleets. The 2021 merger with GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) further consolidated its market position, adding scale and technical expertise in engine leasing—a high-margin segment.