| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence (AI) | n/a | -100 |
| Intrinsic value (DCF) | 35.23 | -11 |
| Graham-Dodd Method | 39.40 | -1 |
| Graham Formula | 820.60 | 1962 |
YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE: YPF) is Argentina's leading integrated energy company, specializing in upstream and downstream oil and gas operations. With a dominant presence in the country's energy sector, YPF engages in exploration, production, refining, and distribution of petroleum products, natural gas, and biofuels. The company operates 1,654 service stations, three refineries with a combined capacity of 120 million barrels per year, and a vast pipeline network spanning 2,800 kilometers. YPF also participates in power generation, with 21 plants contributing 3,091 MW of installed capacity. As of 2021, it held interests in 119 oil and gas fields, boasting reserves of 643 million barrels of oil and 2.4 trillion cubic feet of gas. Headquartered in Buenos Aires, YPF plays a pivotal role in Argentina's energy independence and is a key player in Latin America's hydrocarbon market. Its vertically integrated model ensures control over the entire value chain, from extraction to retail distribution.
YPF presents a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity due to its dominant position in Argentina's energy sector and exposure to volatile commodity prices. The company benefits from strong government ties and a vertically integrated business model, but its financials are heavily influenced by Argentina's macroeconomic instability, currency controls, and regulatory risks. With no dividend payouts, investors must rely on capital appreciation. The stock's low beta (0.71) suggests relative stability compared to the broader energy sector, but geopolitical and fiscal policy risks in Argentina remain significant headwinds. Long-term potential exists if YPF can capitalize on Argentina's vast Vaca Muerta shale reserves, but execution risks and funding challenges persist.
YPF holds a quasi-monopolistic position in Argentina's oil and gas sector, benefiting from first-mover advantage, extensive infrastructure, and government support. Its integrated operations provide cost synergies and insulation against midstream bottlenecks. The company's most significant competitive advantage lies in its control of 120 mmbbl/year refining capacity—critical in a country that has historically faced fuel shortages. YPF's retail network (1,654 stations) creates a captive domestic market, though this also exposes it to government-mandated price controls. Compared to international peers, YPF lags in technological sophistication but compensates with local expertise and low production costs in the Vaca Muerta shale play. Its major weakness is dependence on the Argentine economy—currency volatility and inflation regularly distort financial performance. While Petrobras (Brazil) and Ecopetrol (Colombia) have more diversified international portfolios, YPF remains overwhelmingly domestic, making it a pure play on Argentina's energy sector with limited hedging against country risk.